The protracted political crisis in Rivers State, which blew up in Rivers State late in 2023 between the Minister of Federal Capital Territory (FCT), Nyesom Wike and stated Governor, Sir Siminalayi Fubara has reduced the once very vibrant and boisterous Rivers political arena to be quiet and inactive few months to the determination of governorship aspirants for the various political parties interested in running for the position.
But weeks before political parties are due to hold governorship primaries under the Independent National Electoral Commission’s (INEC) 2027 timetable, most would‑be aspirants in Rivers State have shied away from formally declaring their interest in the race.
This, political analysts in the state has attributed to the consequences of the political crisis which has deeply affected the political configuration of the state and left even the politicians, their suyas well as other citizens confused about what is happening and what is to be expected from the state ahead of the 2027 general elections.
They opined that the hesitation stems largely from uncertainty over whether Siminalayi Fubara, the All Progressives Congress (APC) incumbent, will be allowed to contest a second term.
Fubara, who defected from the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) to the APC after his impeachment battle, is technically in line for re-election in 2027, which INEC has now fixed for Saturday, 6 February 2027.
The commission’s revised timetable requires parties to conclude primaries and internal disputes between 23 April and 30 May 2026.
Fubara’s bid is, however, clouded by his fallout with the former governor and his godfather Nyesom Wike, who eventually emerged victorious after the resolution of the crisis by President Bola Tinubu.
Despite the President’s intervention in the crisis described as ‘a father and son matter’ Wike has repeatedly described backing Fubara’s second-term bid as political suicide for him and a political mistake he would never repeat.
The minister, while addressing supporters during his tour of the 23 local government areas of the state early in the year, repeatedly said, “We don’t know who to vote for yet, but we know who not to vote for,” fuelling speculation that he is positioning an alternative candidate.
Despite the inclination of the All Progressives Congress (APC) to ensure a second-term ticket for its first-term governors, the possibility of Fubara picking the party’s ticket for 2027 has become a hotly discussed political topic in Rivers State.
Analysts doubt Fubara will get the nod to fly the APC flag in 2027 given Wike’s strong influence on the party and the obvious precarious position of the Governor Fubara as a political orphan with the handing over of the APC leadership structure to Wike by the President after the resolution of the rift between the gladiators and Fubara’s decision to remain silent and inactive as the situation currently looks.
Wike has been acknowledged by analysts as perhaps the most influential politician in the state, with a strong say on who picks up what political position and this was demonstrated by the recent emergence of the Minister’s close allies as Chairman and Publicity Secretary of the South South zone of the APC in the persons of Victor Giadom and Samuel Nwanosike, respectively.
The Minister’s strong grip on the state’s ‘political structure through his “rainbow coalition” the (APC and PDP state chapters’) has earlier enabled his camp to produce chairmen of all the 23 local government areas, 29 state House members, all senators and House of Representatives members, members of the state executives, federal and state appointees, among others.
In like manner it is obvious that aspirants for the governorship position from the rainbow coalition are waiting for the Minister of FCT who had several times claimed he reserved the right to announce the next occupant of the Brick House for him to name his candidate.
A political analyst in the state who gave his name simply as Tony reacted thus; “Wike’s grip has silenced potential aspirants. Nobody wants to aspire when Wike has not given him permission to do so.”
Magnus Abe, recently appointed Chairman of the Board of the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC) who was touted as a likely successor to Siminalayi Fubara, seem to have been settled and content with the appointment.
He was reported to have rejected calls to contest the position, choosing rather to be content with his new appointment.
Some social media posts attributed to him claim his response to calls for him to contest was: “Every day Magnus Abe this, Magnus Abe that! You self try contest something na! Make we rest.”
Abe, who represented Rivers South East in the 8th Senate, had repeatedly tried to become Rivers State governor. His 2023 attempt under the banner or the Social Democratic Party SDP, against PDP’s Fubara and APC’s Tonye Cole was not successful.
Others rumored as likely aspirants include Boma Iyaye, NDDC Executive Director of Finance and Administration; Dax Alabo George-Kelly, BCDA Executive Secretary; Dumo Lulu-Briggs, businessman and Kalabari chief; Felix Obuah, former RIWAMA Sole Administrator; and Martin Amaewhule, Speaker of State House of Assembly.
Iyaye, a Wike ally, was rumoured to have been anointed during the thank you tour or the 23 local governments being strongly touted as the FCT minister’s preferred replacement for Fubara.
He hails from Ogu/Bolo LGA, which satisfies the ‘Riverine/Upland Arrangement,’ and balances political positions between the state’s riverine and upland areas.
Sources claim that Wike, during his tour of the state early in the year, indicated he is favourably disposed to Iyaye taking over at the Brick House (Rivers State Government House).
However, Iyaye, like the others, has not indicated his intention to run for the office of governor.
In fact he came early in the week clarified that he has not declared ambition for the governorship of Rivers State or been endorsed by anyone to run.
In a statement which circulated widely of social media Iyaye stated: My attention has been drawn to reports circulating on social media suggesting that I have declared an ambition for the office of the Governor of Rivers State and have been endorsed as a preferred candidate by the Honourable Minister of the Federal Capital Territory (FCT), Nyesom Ezenwo Wike, CON.
I wish to respectfully clarify that these reports are inaccurate and do not reflect the true position.
At this time, my full attention and commitment remain focused on my responsibilities as the Executive Director, Finance and Administration of the Niger Delta Development Commission (NDDC).
I remain fully engaged in the discharge of my duties, working collaboratively with the leadership and stakeholders of the Commission to advance its mandate of sustainable development in the Niger Delta region.
For the avoidance of doubt, I have not made any formal declaration regarding a governorship ambition, nor have I received any endorsement from the Honourable Minister or any other individual as being suggested.
Conversely, Fubara’s yet-to-be-declared bid remains strong. His supporters, perhaps backed by a sizeable percentage of citizens, vow ‘to pay APC back with its own coin’ if the party denies him a second-term ticket.
Analysts further suggest that the Chibuike Rotimi Amaechi-led African Democratic Congress (ADC) in Rivers State might be the ultimate beneficiary of the silent faceoff between Fubara and his godfather, Wike.
However even the ADC has not been able to visibly demonstrate its presence and readiness to contest to replace the occupant of the Rivers Brick House.
As of now, Rivers State is yet to have any governorship aspirant from any of the prominent political parties or even the non prominent ones.
This is therefore preparing the state for a flurry of and rash political actions as the deadline by INEC for emergence of candidates approaches.
